The most intense four-day weekend of the year is rapidly approaching. The NCAA tournament starts Thursday, and by Sunday evening it will have gone from 64 to 16 teams in a flurry of upsets, buzzer-beaters and near heart attacks.
Here is your guide to the top teams in the field.
The Midwest
1. Louisville
The Cardinals suffered some ignominious losses early to Western Kentucky (12 seed in the South), Minnesota (10 East), and UNLV. They also got pasted 90-57 by Notre Dame. Since that time, they have won 10 straight, and won the Big East Tournament. Rick Pitino has won National Titles before, and his team is hot.
Tournament Outlook: If they stay hot, they have a good chance of making the Final Four.
2. Michigan State
The Spartans were blown out early by Maryland (10 West) and UNC (1 South), but they recovered and won the Big Ten regular season championship. While the Big Ten featured several solid teams, they didn’t have the firepower of the Big East or the ACC. Winning the Big Ten this year is not evidence of the same level of team as winning a different conference. Tom Izzo has a National Title, and his teams are always prepared and play hard, but they probably don’t have enough to get past Louisville.
Tournament Outlook: They’re a solid bet to make the Sweet 16, but they will need an upset or two to make the Final Four.
3. Kansas
The Jayhawks won the National Title in 2008 on one of the more memorable shots in tournament history. This year’s team returns no starters from that team, and only 2 players who saw playing time. Kansas started badly, with losses to Arizona, UMass and Michigan St, but they recovered to win the Big 12 regular season title. Towards the end of the year, they lost to Texas Tech and Baylor, neither of whom are in the tournament. They have a tough draw, with 6 seed West Virginia and 2 seed Michigan St in their bracket.
Tournament Outlook: If KU plays like it did against Texas Tech and Baylor, they won’t make it out of the first weekend. A Sweet 16 would be an accomplishment, and a Final Four run will have to wait until next year.
4. Wake Forest
The Demon Deacons are a manic team. They started the season 16-0, have victories over North Carolina and Duke, and were ranked #1 for a time. On the other hand, they lost to Virginia Tech, North Carolina St, and by 27 to Miami, none of whom made the tournament. They seem to play well against good team, and badly against bad teams.
This can be a very dangerous habit in a tournament. They might look past the first round and lose to Cleveland St. Or, they could get hot and make the Final Four.
Tournament Outlook: If you pick Wake Forest to go deep and they get upset, you look like an idiot. Or, you pick them to get upset, and they go deep, and you look like an idiot. These are the kind of teams that make you fill out multiple brackets.
The West
1. UConn
The Huskies have been near the top all year. They lost twice to Pittsburgh (1 East), but they won’t have to face them for a while. They have size, speed and talent, and Jim Calhoun has won National Titles in the past. Their loss of guard Jerome Dyson to injury hurts, but they’ve continued to win without him. They should be able to handle 4 seed Washington or 5 seed Purdue in the Sweet 16, and then face a showdown with Memphis to reach the Final Four.
Tournament Outlook: Strong probability of the Elite Eight, and a good chance to make the Final Four.
2. Memphis
The Tigers lost a heartbreaker in the championship game last year, but they have reloaded and compiled an impressive 31-3 record. They dominated Conference USA, and that is part of the problem. Since they play in a weaker conference, it’s hard to tell how good they are. They lost to Xavier (4 East), Syracuse (3 South) and Georgetown in non-conference play, and beat Tennessee (9 East) and Gonzaga (4 South). They play fast, which can give teams trouble, but they haven’t been tested.
Tournament Outlook: This is a hard team to evaluate. They could face trouble from Missouri or UConn in a close game. You might want to look here for an upset.
3. Missouri
It pains me deeply to say it, but the Tigers are a dangerous team. They won the Big 12 Tournament for the first time, and they seem to be peaking at the right time. Their pressing style is reminiscent of Arkansas under Nolan Richardson, and it can be difficult to prepare for, especially for teams with only two days of practice time.
Tournament Outlook: If you’re looking for a team to pull of an upset or two and maybe make a deep run, this might be a place to start. An MU-Memphis game could be in the 100’s.
4. Washington
The Pac Ten, like the Big Ten, had a down year. Washington had some bad losses early, including the opener to Portland and a 19 point loss at Kansas. They managed to win the league, but having a 4 as your highest seed is not an indication of strength. They’ll face a challenge from Purdue in the 4-5 game, and then UConn.
Tournament Outlook: Sweet 16 is probably as far as they go, if that.
As a side note, the Sweet 16 in this region could feature a game of Huskies vs Huskies, and one of Tigers vs Tigers. Very original mascots.
The East
1. Pittsburgh
The Panthers are another team that has been near the top all year. They beat UConn twice, and three of their four losses are to tournament teams. The biggest knock on Pitt is their performance in previous tournaments. They have never reached a Final Four. In fact, they have never even reached and Elite 8. This is their first ever 1 seed. Pitt clearly has a strong team, but they lack the tradition and experience of going deep into the tournament. How will they handle a close game in the Sweet 16?
Tournament Outlook: This team is very likely to make the Sweet 16, and then the questions begin. This year’s team is probably talented enough to break through to the Elite 8, but they could face Duke there, and that could be trouble. An optimistic Final Four pick at best.
2. Duke
Yes, Duke is good again. They won the ACC tournament and will likely crush everything in their path, causing Dick Vitale to go in to paroxysms of Duke-adoration.
Tournament Outlook: They’re not invincible, but they will probably go to the Final Four just because so many people don’t want them to.
3. Villanova
I did not know Villanova was good, but apparently they are. Their losses are all to tournament teams, and they beat Pitt (1 East) once and Syracuse (3 South) twice. They lost close games to UConn and Louisville, which shows that they are within striking distance of the top teams in the country.
Tournament Outlook: Good bet to make the Sweet 16. Only pick them to beat Duke if you are feeling especially ballsy (or just want to be the only person in the pool NOT to have Duke in the Final Four, just in case).
4. Xavier
If you take how much I know about Villanova and subtract some, that’s what I know about Xavier. I didn’t even know which conference they were in (Atlantic 10). They did play Duke (2 East) and fellow mid-major Butler (9 South) and got spanked, but they beat Memphis (2 West) and Missouri (3 West). I have no idea what this team will do. Lose to Portland St in the first round? Go to the Final Four? Mutate into the X-Men?
Tournament Outlook: I recommend dice.
The South
1. North Carolina
The Tarheels are one of the best teams in the country. They have experienced players, a former Kansas coach with a National Title, and a tradition of Final Fours. I suppose it’s possible they lose, but they probably have the best chance of any 1 seed to make the Final Four.
Tournament Outlook: Final Four. Anything less would be an upset.
2. Oklahoma
Blake Griffin is one of the few players mentioned by name, but that is because he is OU’s entire team (more or less). I’ve watched this team play four times, twice with Griffin and twice without, and they lost all four times. I’m told they’re very good, but every time I tune in, they play terribly. Since I’m planning on watching most of the tournament, you might want to take this into account when making your picks.
OU started the year strong, but finished with 4 losses in their last 6 games. Griffin was out for 2 of those with a concussion.
Tournament Outlook: If they can recover their early season form, they could make a very deep run. However, they are struggling at the wrong time, and teams that rely on one player historically have trouble in the tournament. This team is ripe for an early exit.
3. Syracuse
They played an epic 6-overtime game against UConn in the Big East Tournament. Pundits love to talk about fatigue from games causing problems, but I’m pretty sure four days is enough time to get some rest. They have a win over Memphis (2 West) in non-conference and one over UConn. The 2-3 zone can give teams trouble if they don’t have time to prepare. Syracuse is a solid, well-coached team, unlikely to be upset. They may even beat OU in the Sweet 16, but probably won’t get past UNC.
Tournament Outlook: Likely Sweet 16, possible Elite 8. Final Four is a longshot.
4. Gonzaga
They have solid victories over teams like Oklahoma St (8 East) and Maryland (10 West), but they lost to the big boys like UConn and Memphis. They also suffer from playing in a weaker conference, making it harder to evaluate their play. They have a good non-conference schedule, but that doesn’t compare to the grind of an entire season in the ACC or Big East.
Tournament Outlook: It’s always possible they surprise someone, but don’t look for them to get past UNC in the Sweet 16.
Conclusion
For those of you whose team is not in the top 4 seeds, alas. There’s just not enough room (and I’m too lazy) to evaluate every team in the bracket. There is something important to remember. No matter which team you face, they will have some guy you’ve never heard of, and that guy you’ve never heard of, who averages 7.2 points per game, will pick the opening round game against your team as the ideal time to shoot 9-13 from 3 and drop in 37 points, including the game winner with 2.1 seconds left, which will be replayed over and over throughout the tournament, never letting you escape the agony of your teams humiliating first round exit.
And that’s why we love March.
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